13 lines
974 B
Plaintext
13 lines
974 B
Plaintext
TODO
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o Record historical error values with respect to popular confidence in each game. Important to measure accuracy of crowd and identify what biases cause the crowd to be wrong
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o Identify biases
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o Persistent biases (like home underdogs and other stats where people notoriously miscalculate their importance)
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o Temporary biases (maybe like hating on a team for some reason)
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o Last week bias (check if people tend to overestimate teams that won in previous week(s) and/or underestimate teams that lost in previous week(s))
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o Streaks that cause people to miscalculate
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o Take close look at home underdog games since oddsmakers deliberately place the "wrong" odds to improve their payout (they take advantage of known crowd bias in favor of away team)
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o Measure velocity of picks (rate at which people are choosing home vs. away *at the moment*. Important to recognize when the market is moving in one direction, possibly due to new information) |